The following is a wealth of fellow Friends of group participation in the high share of China's shares of the conference call Friends of macroeconomic consolidation, for the majority of investors to share:
Gao Hua Securities Special Advisor Professor Song Guoqing:
1 quarter, year on year GDP growth rate high, but the absolute level of production is not high at present. growth rates are mainly the problem of low base. At present the level of real economic growth with considerable potential, CPI inflation rate of about 2.5-3% of short-term trend, in March by a lower number of temporary factors .
However, the next stage of the inflationary pressures are rapidly accumulated. March the number of credit looks small, but the chain growth rate of M2 is still exceeds 20%. The reason is still worth studying, not statistics may be due to other credit and the increase in foreign exchange.
large commodity prices rose sharply over the past few weeks, showing a quarter of total demand expansion has caused a PPI inflation.
a quarter of these have shown remarkable leniency money supply, macro-tightening required control, otherwise the second half of the inflationary pressures will be very significant.
but industrial policy (real estate) as a means of macroeconomic control is still bit of a surprise.
In effect,Bailey UGG boots, the introduction of real estate in this point in time control policies can be suppressed to some extent, the upward trend in aggregate demand is a positive signal.
Therefore, in the real estate after the introduction of control policies, we are more convinced that the previously forecast GDP growth of Goldman Sachs 11.4%, CPI 3.5% of the cases is appropriate, do not feel significantly higher or lower. Prior to the high point of view with the idea.
We believe that the regulation of real estate has no negative effect on aggregate demand. The reason is the investment demand is very, very strong demand for credit is high, such as banks drop sharply financing instruments (bank loans nervous, do not want to low rate financing instruments). In the case of investment demand is very prosperous, the real estate sales has been steadily weakening of aggregate demand is good . But the real estate investment may not be significant changes in the short term. This is relative, if the sales of good, real estate companies have more money, the equivalent increase in money supply will lead to more investment. all real estate sales The situation can be derived from new investment demand.
some local short-term rates may fall slightly, but appears as comprehensive Q4 08 major correction is unlikely. especially the Shanghai region, supply and demand makes the price difficult to adjust downward. but stressed the uncertainty of demand for real estate great, great forecast uncertainty.
We do not worry about the economy will cool, still vigorous and worried about the economy to overheat; even if the real estate New Deal continue to introduce, to some extent economic growth abroad, the callback will not affect exports affect our estimates of the total demand on the strong side. macro-economic control brought about by the downward pressure on aggregate demand is necessary, positive, otherwise the economy the risk of overheating, and even lead to credit and money supply in the deviation. Government is concerned about the so-called M2 growth rate and thus the chain more than 20%.
external demand: depends on overseas demand and the effective exchange rate of RMB. RMB exchange rate basically the most recent stable and effective. Goldman Sachs recently raised its full-day forecast of economic growth in Europe and America, showed the government expected foreign demand for ultra- strong recovery.
recent concern is the Ministry of Commerce and the former Ministry of Agriculture data mm relative stability, the latter on the rise. past experience shows that the two should have a seasonal decline. This means that the rise in CPI inflation may has already begun.
lagged behind the current policy orientation. Song Yu that the lack of government regulation is more likely than the over-regulation. whole economy will situation.
Qiao Hong, China economist at Goldman Sachs:
Qiao back to 3% of the CPI, after that decision-making control with the possibility of interest rate policy will rise, but in the second half is still mainly dependent on use of quantified, divided industry regulation and control policy. We have recently predicted the rate of change (now that within the next 3 months will be a small gradual appreciation) reflects the domestic policy-makers for the rise in trade protectionism, the multiple risks to consider.
overseas macro: Summary Goldman Sachs is more bearish than the market point of view mm U.S. economy, the market is more optimistic than the European economy.
- U.S. Economy: Despite last week Goldman Sachs raised its quarterly U.S. GDP growth rate 2 forecasts throughout the year on a quarterly basis in order to see 2.5% 3.0% (previous forecast 2.0%), 1.5%, 1.5%,UGG bailey button, but Goldman Sachs believes that the U.S. consumer activity Recently saw the improvement is only short-lived and not sustainable; future real estate transactions and a decline in local spending have made the U.S. economy In the second half again in 10 to go soft. All the signs indicate the beginning of 2007 but did not improve the economic imbalance has worsened,UGGs, and in the household savings rate has Recently has not increased but decreased. we are still the most on the market bearish on the U.S. economy, the current view other Wall Street investment banks make up the U.S. economy has yet to appear about the end of any library.
- European Economy: the 10-year / 11 years respectively, from the original growth forecast of 1.2% / 1.9% raised 1.7% / 2.2%. that the accelerated recovery of Germany, France and Eastern Europe, held on the British economy and the market very different from the optimism of the recent U.S. Roadshow feedback
: Despite some concerns about long-term problems still exist, but the United States to China in the short-term customers in view of the situation better than we expected. Because the risks associated with growth and inflation tend to uplink, most customers think that the RMB exchange rate and interest rates adjusted for the reverse cycle regulation in China has a positive meaning.
Q & A:
(The following answer by Professor Song)
Q1: you put the property as tightening control policy point of view,UGG shoes, but from another point of understanding, to increase land supply will have a positive instead of stimulating the economy?
A1: increase land supply is undoubtedly conducive to curb housing prices. short term, real estate sales will be relatively decreased, the effect of tight play. mainly due to the enterprise from the household savings into investment may decline, causing the overall decline in the velocity of money.
Q2: Will the local debt financing platform for future economic growth and pose a threat to bank assets? the government's recent move to purge the local financing platform for investment in the future if there will be affected?
A2 : previous issues, mainly depends on the overall government (central and local) financial situation, rather than single local government. now the whole society of personal disposable income may be less than the proportion of national income accounted for 60% and still falling . the government share of national income continued to surge, and undistributed profits of state-owned enterprises are also growing rapidly, part of the support can come from a capital investment. So in general there is sufficient financial capacity to pay, there is in this context regulation of income distribution, including adjustment of the central room where a large share of income, to avoid the appearance of more bad debts. but best not to full pay, leaving some individual risk of bad debts to the bank as a warning.
the latter issue, in the total It is too strong investment demand on the control is necessary. But in the structure may cause some negative effects. We believe that a serious shortage of infrastructure investment, the relative increase in need. This is a structural problem.
Q3: real estate regulation may lead developers do not want to take, the revenue of local governments would affect?
A3: current land prices, even if further significant decline is quite high. Now, only do not want to sell, none that are not selling land. Even if the real estate demand is weak, falling house prices, as long as the land is not far off the mark, developers get to have profits. so developers do not want to get to only one possibility is that bid the reserve price too high. land or a little of each if areas as a whole. taking into account the impact on economic growth, the local government may not be detrimental.
Q4: 7.5 trillion of credit throughout the year targets unchanged, the real estate market, which will be the potential flow of funds?
A4: real estate investment and infrastructure investment similar to the seesaw effect, pressure head, the other end to free up some space. mainly in the real economy, not the stock market may be the case of real estate capital flows.
Q5: there will be the possibility of real estate price bubble burst it? We observed that the current national housing vacancy rate is high, it means that supply more than enough?
A5: If the second and third tier cities to increase land supply, housing prices down, we can say that there is a bubble; but the Shanghai Centre of land supply is limited, resource scarcity, down space is not great. vacancy problem, mainly because the real interest rate is too low, but some are revolving in nature, there are only to be rental housing. part of the development of small and medium sized cities will good, but definitely part of the decline of small cities is also possible, which is more long-term problems. small town economy, low efficiency, and the cities supporting the development of a positive advantage, some not promising. liberalized if the land supply, housing prices in small towns will be almost equal to construction costs.
Q6: Do you think the Government on the price of tolerance is what?
A6: may be room price increase is not significantly higher than the CPI to be tolerated. If the real income rose, increasing purchasing power, even now can not afford the future may also be affordable. However, if the relative decline in real income is a bigger problem.
Q7 : Consider the problem of economic restructuring, to suppress the future of real estate will stimulate consumer do?
A7: economic restructuring of the problem has been raised a long time. I think that it is not realistic to short-term consumption. In the case of negative real interest rate , if the rise in personal disposable income, then the housing demand but bigger, not necessarily to the consumer.
consumption to a greater extent depend on total wealth, in the sense that people holding real estate or other little difference on the consumption of assets. If real estate sales decline, related to consumption will be reduced, but may increase other spending, has little effect on the total amount.
the stock market such as the sea, as the ordinary shareholders of you often a hundred feet flex heart, caught in a dilemma,
back is running scared caught shrimp lobster into the concerns were behind the Sharks are not bolted down fur left!
Why is this? is because you are a person in the battle!
unite all the Chinese investors, help each other, share the sea Gold Rush!
mm shares the wealth fellow members of the Friends of the recruitment of mutual QQ group (65/300)
QQ group number (consultation and trial version): 94,314,385
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